Today we'll be looking at the highest-paid player at the quarterback and running back position in the National Football League by Annual Average Value, or AAV, their contract, how they got there, and who the next player to take their title may be. Let's dive in!
Quarterback
Currently, Joe Burrow stands as the highest paid quarterback with an AAV of 55 million dollars as he signed 5 year, 275 million dollar deal on September 9th, 2023. The title of both highest-paid quarterback and highest-paid NFL player seems to keep getting passed around, as each franchise quarterback continues to raise the bar higher, including Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and others. However, after taking his Bengals to the Super Bowl and establishing himself as an elite franchise quarterback in the NFL, Burrow and his team were able to top Herbert's 5 year, 262 million dollar deal.
Predicting the next quarterback to break this barrier is not an easy task. There are tons of candidates: Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J Stroud. I believe that the current front offices of the Dolphins and Jaguars have not seen enough elite level play from their respective quarterbacks to warrant almost 60 million a year, ruling them out. Love will play the 2024 season on his fifth year option, and this coming year will be monumental for Love to break out of the "one-year wonder" labels. Prescott is currently under scrutiny for his 2017 alleged sexual assault case and his inability to lead his team deep into the Cowboys will certainly hurt his case to be the highest paid-quarterback. Stroud, meanwhile, just put together potentially the best rookie season of all time for a quarterback and seems poised to be a face of the NFL for years to come, even if he is not eligible for a contract extension for multiple years. Overall, Love seems next-in-line for a major extension to break Burrow's record, although that is highly contingent on Love's performance this coming year. If he is unable to put together an elite season, NFL fans may have to wait a few years for CJ Stroud to dethrone Cincinnati's quarterback.
Running Back
Now on the completely other side of the spectrum, we move from the highest valued position to potentially the most undervalued position in the NFL: running back. Currently, and deservedly so, Christian McCaffrey owns the title of highest paid running back in the league, signing a 4 year, 64.06 million dollar deal in April of 2020 following a first-team all-pro season. McCaffrey would then get traded to San Francisco and earn first-team honors again in his first full season with the 49ers. Still, the running back market has caused chaos and hurt relationships among front offices and running backs, as their value, shelf life, and sparkle have slowly dwindled away. The NFL has shifted to a more pass-happy offensive style and many teams are starting to use multiple running backs in their gameplan, also known as a Running Back By Committee, overall hurting star running backs and their market value.
With the value of the position decreasing, it's hard to predict who could surpass McCaffrey's AAV of 16.015 million, and this 2024 free agent class didn't help much either. Star backs Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry all entered free agency, and none were able to come three million within McCaffrey's AAV. An argument may be made that those three running backs were too old, but Jonathan Taylor, having proved himself as an elite player, signed an extension last year at 24 years old worth 42 million over 3 years. Simply put, in order to surpass McCaffrey, a young running back will need to have put together an elite resume, no signs of slowing down, and no injury history. Here are some candidates to do so: Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, Devon Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs. Etienne, Hall, and Achane have suffered significant injuries early on in their career, which may hurt them, while Walker lacks the elite resume. This leaves us with two candidates: Robinson and Gibbs. Overall, I see Robinson having a solid shot at taking McCaffrey's title despite not having an amazing rookie season. He will now play for what should be an electric offense with Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and himself. With no significant injuries behind him, youth, and extreme talent and prestige, a few all-pro level seasons could lead to Robinson earning a huge pay day.
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